top of page

Summary
Going into this season I didn't expect Chris Paul to opt out and become a free agent this summer, but after leading the Suns to the league's second best regular season record, finishing 5th in MVP voting, and leading the Suns to the Finals, it's now likely that he opts out as he would still be one of the top free agents on the market, even at age 36. Paul has shown he can still lead successful teams, taking an OKC team that nobody expected to be in the playoffs to a 5-seed, and now taking the Suns to possibly their most successful season ever.

Paul can still get to his spots on offense, and thus can be a reliable go-to option late in games. He'll make the right plays on both ends of the court. He isn't someone that will actively hurt you on days where his shot isn't falling, as he can find other ways to impact the game. While he doesn't get to the rim as much as he was when he was younger, he still has craftiness to finish at a decent rate inside. His shooting numbers are still good as he hit 41% from three this season and still finished above-average at the rim.

By opting out, Paul may take a short-term paycut, but will likely lock in a longer contract (similar to what Gordon Hayward did last offseason).
 
Cap Considerations
Paul has a player option for his $44.2 million salary in 2021-2022, and will be an unrestricted free agent with a $39.3 million cap hold and full Bird rights if he opts out. If Paul opts out, the Suns could have a significant amount of cap space, but only if Paul leaves. If the Suns plan on re-signing Paul, they will be operating over the salary cap and have no restrictions on re-signing him.
 
If Paul were to opt out, it would likely be to take a short term paycut in order to lock in a longer-term contract. If Paul opts out and is re-signed on a multi-year contract, front-loading his contract could be beneficial for the Suns, as it could give them more flexibility in the future. However, this could push the Suns near the luxury tax, depending on what happens with their other free agents.
 
If he were to opt out, Paul would certainly demand a starting salary of more than the full $9.5 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, which means only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. If Paul and an over-the-cap team have mutual interest, sign-and-trade options can be explored.

Potential Teams: Suns, Heat, Mavericks, 76ers, Knicks

Predicted Contract: 3-year, $125 million with the Suns

Actual Contract: 4-year, $120 million (3rd year $15.8 million guaranteed, 4th year non-guaranteed) with the Suns

Paul actually didn't do quite as well as I expected, but still got a big contract from Phoenix. The Suns also did well by making the 3rd and 4th years partially-guaranteed and non-guaranteed, respectively.

Last updated: 8/19/2021

bottom of page