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Summary
It has been a tough fall from grace for Oladipo, as the former All-NBA guard has dealt with injuries over the past three seasons and hasn't been able to get fully healthy for any real stretch of games. After hitting a career high 37% from three and 67% at the rim in '17-'18, Oladipo's percentages have decreased in those areas, and is shooting 32% from three this season, which is below average.

On the defensive end, Oladipo isn't where he was at his peak but can still defend at a solid level. I think teams will likely be hesitant to give Oladipo much a big contract this summer, especially considering he had surgery in May and may miss a chunk of next season, so I expect him to sign a small one-year contract and hope to cash in during the summer of 2022 if he is able to get healthy and have a productive season.
 
Cap Considerations
Oladipo will be an unrestricted free agent with a $31 million cap hold and full Bird rights, so the Heat will have no restrictions on re-signing him. Since the 2021 free agent class is now looking less strong, there's a better chance the Heat decide to remain over the cap and bring back most of their team, rather than use cap space. However, with Bam Adebayo's max extension kicking in and Duncan Robinson set to get a big raise, the  luxury tax could become a concern for Miami.

If the Heat re-sign Oladipo, it could cost them a lot in luxury tax penalties depending on what happens with their other free agents. Therefore, other teams will have a legitimate shot at signing Oladipo away from Miami without having to make him a huge offer.

If Oladipo demands a starting salary of more than the full $9.5 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him, unless a sign-and-trade is worked out. It is possible that Oladipo could be had for the full MLE or less.

Potential Teams: Heat, Raptors, Knicks, Mavericks, Bulls

Predicted Contract: 1-year, $7.5 million with the Heat

Actual Contract: 1-year, $2.4 million ($1.7 million cap hit) with the Heat

I thought someone might give Oladipo more than the minimum on a one-year flyer, but Oladipo instead re-signed with Miami for the minimum, and will hope to restore his value after he recovers.

Last updated: 8/19/2021

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