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Summary
Nunn had a breakout year in 2019-2020, starting for most of the season and finishing in the top three in Rookie of the Year voting. Nunn has the ability to beat his man off the dribble and get to the rim. He's a super quick straight-line driver, but also has some shake to get by defenders in isolation. He hasn't developed much of a stepback game, but he can hit pullup jumpers. You'd like to see him develop into a craftier pick-and-roll playmaker, and doing so could make him into a better lead-guard. As of now, Nunn is best served being a secondary creator next to a playmaking wing like Jimmy Butler.

Nunn is a little older than most players with his amount of experience, as he'll be 26 this summer. If he signs a long-term deal, Nunn won't become an unrestricted free agent until he is 30. Nunn will be coming off a 3-year minimum deal, with his first season being at the very end of the '18-'19 season in which he didn't even play any NBA minutes, allowing him to still be considered a rookie in '19-'20. Because he's made relatively little money thus far in his career, I assume Nunn would be eager to lock in as much long-term money as possible, even if it means going to a worse team or a worse fit.
 
Cap Considerations
Nunn will be a restricted free agent with a $4.7 million cap hold and Qualifying Offer. Nunn's QO is probably not high enough for it to come into play, but it's not out of the question. If Nunn isn't happy with any of his offers, he could end up taking the QO and trying again as an unrestricted free agent in 2022.

Since Nunn will have a fairly low cap hold, the Heat can take advantage of this by keeping his cap hold on the books, using their cap space to sign free-agents, then using Bird Rights to re-sign Nunn once their cap space has been used up. Nunn will demand a starting salary of more than the full $9.5 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, which means only teams with cap space will be able to sign him.

Other teams will have multiple ways to sign Nunn as even teams without cap space could possibly use either of the Non-Taxpayer MLE, Taxpayer MLE, or possibly even the Room MLE to sign him to an offer sheet. However, Nunn being a restricted free agent will greatly lower his interest among teams, as they will worry that the only way to pry him away from Miami would be to significantly overpay him.

Potential Teams: Heat, Knicks, Bulls, Pelicans, Raptors

Predicted Contract: 3-year, $28 million with the Heat

Actual Contract: 2-year, $10.3 million (player option) with the Lakers

Prior to free agency, there were reports that Nunn could get something in the $15 million per year range. I was skeptical of those reports, and I was most likely correct unless he just really wanted to play for the Lakers. After agreeing to receive Kyle Lowry in a sign-and-trade and re-signing Duncan Robinson, there was really no way the Heat could have brought back Nunn and stayed under the hard cap.

Last updated: 8/19/2021

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