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Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Summary
Robinson has shown a lot of promise in his early career, but hasn't quite developed in the last couple years as much as Knicks fans would hope. While he has legitimate shot-blocking ability, he hasn't turned those defensive tools into becoming an elite rim protector. That kind of impact comes from good positional awareness and high basketball IQ, which Robinson hasn't shown he has quite yet.
On offense, Robinson is a solid lob threat, but not an elite one. His free throw shooting has regressed each season so far, which is worrisome as he shot a terrible 49% this past season. Robinson is probably a starting caliber center going forward, but I'm unsure he will ever be a top-10 center in the league.
Cap Considerations
Robinson has a $1.8 million team option for 2021-2022, and the Knicks might decline this option to make Robinson a restricted free agent in 2021, rather than picking up the option and having Robinson hit unrestricted free agency in 2022. Therefore, Robinson will be a restricted free agent with a $4.7 million cap hold and Qualifying Offer. Robinson's QO will almost certainly not come into play, as he will either sign a large contract with the Knicks or get a large offer sheet from another team, so Robinson settling for the QO is near certain not to happen.
If a player has a smaller cap hold than his starting salary, his team can use cap space to sign-free agents before using Bird Rights to re-sign its own free agents. Therefore, the Knicks could use cap space to add talent, then re-sign Robinson after using up their cap space.
For other teams, Robinson will be looking for a contract around 4-year, $60 million or more, and it would likely take something near that in order for New York to not match. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for the Knicks to match.
Potential Teams: Knicks, Hornets, Thunder, Raptors, Grizzlies
Predicted Contract: 4-year, $60 million with the Knicks
Actual Contract: Opt-In: $1.8 million
I thought Robinson and his agent would try to put more pressure (even publicly) on the Knicks to decline his option by threatening to definitely leave in free agency in 2022 so he could make more money now rather than settling for the minimum. Nikola Jokic quietly did a similar thing in 2018, but those kind of threats are different for a legitimate franchise-level player. The Knicks overall may just not be too worried about Robinson leaving in 2022.
The Knicks could still agree to an extension with Robinson, or even renegotiate-and-extend his contract by using some cap space to give him a raise this season. Doing so could allow the Knicks to front-load his contract more than a normal declining contract could, as he could get a 40% decrease starting in 2022-2023.
Although there's a risk for Robinson to leave in 2022, picking up his option and having him on a minimum contract for another season gives them the most cap space in 2022, as his cap hold will be small, so they could still try to re-sign him after using their cap space.
Last updated: 7/31/2021
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