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Summary
After showing real star potential in his second season in '18-'19, Markkanen has struggled to build on that promise, and has possibly even regressed. There have been many times watching the Bulls where you barely even notice him on offense. Despite being lauded as a shooting big, he has never shot great from three, as he's hovered around 37% for his career, which is fine, but nothing spectacular.

On defense, he hasn't developed into much of a rim protector, which makes it difficult to play him at center. Having to play the four negates some of the skills that he has on offense, as you can put a wing on him without having to worry much. Wings can either get out to contest against him in pick-and-pop situations, and even if you switch Markkanen is not someone you exactly fear in the post. However, Markkanen will be 24 this summer, and I could easily see a team talking themselves into giving him a sizeable offer sheet. Guys with his size and skill aren't that easy to come by, and he's young enough that it's reasonable to think he will still improve.

I think it's more likely that Markkanen becomes a more devastating offensive force than improving his defense to above-average, so teams that have rim protection and some solid perimeter defenders could likely slot him in and hope that he can space the floor and become a secondary attacker when he's given a hard closeout. Imagine Ryan Anderson with more off-the-dribble ability. That's what Markkanen could become if he really develops into an elite shooter. I wouldn't say that outcome is likely, but it's certainly in the realm of possibility.
 
Cap Considerations
Markkanen will be a restricted free agent with a $20.2 million cap hold and a $9.3 million Qualifying Offer. Markkanen's QO is probably not high enough for it to come into play, but it's not out of the question. If Markkanen isn't happy with any of his offers, he could end up taking the QO and trying again as an unrestricted free agent in 2022. Since Markkanen has a high cap hold, that cap hold will cut into the Bulls' cap space unless they decide to let Markkanen leave.

Markkanen will be looking for a contract in the $15+ million per-year range, and the Bulls would likely not match that unless they felt like they could trade him later. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for the Bulls to match.

Potential Teams: Bulls, Hornets, Knicks, Spurs, Raptors

Predicted Contract: 2-year, $25 million with the Bulls

Actual Contract: 4-year, $67.5 million (4th year $6 million guaranteed) with the Cavaliers

I thought Markkanen might struggle to find a solid offer sheet in free agency and return to Chicago on a reasonable, short-term deal. For a while, it was looking that way, until the Cavaliers came in and offered him a solid contract as part of a sign-and-trade for Larry Nance.

Last updated: 8/27/2021

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