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Summary
Despite Collins putting up really good numbers for a young big, there have been questions about what his ideal role on a successful team, which have largely been answered in these playoffs. Collins is a bit of a tweener, as he's offensively best suited as a stretch-5 that also operates as a lob threat, but on defense he doesn't provide enough rim protection to be an anchor of a great defense. However, he's been able to start next to Capela on offense without any fit troubles, while also playing center against certain lineups.

While Collins shoots a solid percentage from 3, it hasn't been on high volume to make him someone that defenses fear. He also doesn't have much off-the-dribble ability, and could still improve his playmaking out of the roll. But there aren't many bigs that can be a lob threat while also stretching the floor, and that creates a ton of value in today's pick-and-roll heavy NBA.

I think Collins has shown enough on offense to get a big contract from somebody. It wouldn't surprise me if the Hornets gave saw him as the center of their future, and he could also fit next to skilled bigs such as Bam Adebayo or Kristaps Porzingis. 
 
Cap Considerations
Collins will be a restricted free agent with a $12.4 million cap hold and a $7.7 million Qualifying Offer. Collins's QO will almost certainly not come into play, as he will either sign a large contract with the Hawks or get a large offer sheet from another team, so Collins settling for the QO is near certain not to happen.

If a player has a smaller cap hold than his starting salary, his team can use cap space to sign-free agents before using Bird Rights to re-sign its own free agents. Since the Hawks will not have cap room, Collins's cap hold will not play a factor. If the Hawks re-sign Collins, they could benefit from front-loading his contract. However, they will also have to factor in Trae Young getting a big raise in 2022-2023, which could push the Hawks into the luxury tax depending on what happens with the rest of the roster.

For other teams, Collins will be looking for a 4-year, $120.8 million max offer, or likely at least something around $100 million, and it would likely take something near the max in order for Atlanta to not match. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for Atlanta to match.

Potential Teams: Hawks, Raptors , Mavericks, Hornets, Heat

Predicted Contract: 4-year, $102 million with the Hawks

Actual Contract: 5-year, $125 million (player option) with the Hawks

Collins got similar money to what I expected, but was able to get a 5th year player option as well. The Hawks also did a nice job of starting Collins at as high of a salary as they could this season while avoiding the luxury tax, which gives them a little more flexibility going forward.

Last updated: 8/17/2021

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