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Summary
I believe in Josh Hart as someone who could be a legitimate difference-maker as a role player for a contending team. He rebounds at an elite level for his position - Hart was in the 97th percentile in defensive rebounding rate in '19-'20, per Cleaning the Glass, and this season was in the very top percentile for his position. He has a good shot profile for a role-player, as the vast majority of his attempts come from the rim or from three. He's a below-average but respectable outside shooter at 35% from three for his career. He also defends well and has the versatility to defend multiple positions, even if he's not quite big enough to guard the elite wings in the league.
 
He'll be 26 this summer, so while he may not have the upside of some others players coming off their rookie contracts, it's likely you'll be getting Hart for his prime over his next contract.
 
Cap Considerations
Hart will be a restricted free agent with a $10.5 million cap hold and a $5.3 million Qualifying Offer. Hart's QO is probably not high enough for it to come into play, but it's not out of the question. If Hart isn't happy with any of his offers, he could end up taking the QO and trying again as an unrestricted free agent in 2022. The Pelicans won't have cap space unless they renounce all of their free agents, including Hart, so his cap hold isn't really relevant.
 
If the Pelicans re-sign Hart, they could benefit from front-loading his contract. However, they could be pushing close to the luxury tax depending on Hart's salary and what happens with their other free agents.
 
For other teams, Hart will be looking for a contract in the $10+ million per year range, and it would likely take something near that in order for New Orleans to not match. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for New Orleans to match.

Potential Teams: Pelicans, Grizzlies, Heat, Kings, Knicks

Predicted Contract: 4-year, $56 million with the Pelicans

Actual Contract: 3-year, $37.9 million (2nd year nonguaranteed, 3rd year nonguaranteed and player option) with the Pelicans

Hart didn't get as much as I expected, but was able to get a pretty nice deal to come back to New Orleans despite the market drying up for him. He has a very interesting contract structure, as the second year of his contract is nonguaranteed, and if the Pelicans keep him through the second season of his contract, Hart will have a player option, but even if he opts in his contract will be nonguaranteed in the third year. The CBA requires that option years have the same percentage guaranteed as the prior year in the contract.

Last updated: 8/19/2021

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