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Summary
Graham broke out in '19-'20, going from an underperforming 2nd round pick to one of the leaders for Most Improved Player. Graham became a legitimate off-the-dribble threat, and his ability to pull-up from three out of pick-and-roll and hit threes at a high rate made him the Hornets' go-to scorer.

However, despite hitting 38% from three and doing so on a lot of tough attempts, people were worried about the other aspects of Graham's scoring. Graham was in the 12th percentile in mid-range FG% in each of his first two years in the league, and that only slightly improved this season (28th percentile). Even more concerning, Graham was in the 10th percentile for his position last season in shots at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass, and was even worse this season (5th percentile). Graham's size will always make it difficult to finish at the rim, but he needs to learn to use his body better to create space or absorb contact on drives. Graham remained steady from outside at 38% from three this season, so he did quiet some of the noise around '19-'20 being an outlier hot shooting season.

Graham will also already be 26 this summer. While that likely limits his future upside, a team could talk themselves into them getting Graham in the prime of his career with this next contract. Graham will be finishing a three-year minimum contract, so he will certainly be looking for a big contract, as this may be his only real chance. Depending on the length of his contract, Graham may not hit free agency again until he is 30, which could be a tough place to be in for a small guard.
 
Cap Considerations
Graham will be a restricted free agent with full Bird rights and a $4.7 million cap hold and Qualifying Offer. Having a low cap hold and full Bird rights could be beneficial for the Hornets, as they can keep Graham's cap hold on the books, use cap space to sign free agents, and then re-sign Graham once they have used up all their cap space. If Graham is brought back by the Hornets on a multi-year contract, they should frontload his contract as much as possible, especially since they could do so without losing any cap space.
 
If Graham demands a starting salary of more than the full $9.5 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. It's not out of the realm of possibility though that Graham could end up signing for the full MLE, would be around 4-years and $41 million. However, Graham being a restricted free agent will greatly lower his interest among teams, as they will worry that the only way to pry him away from Charlotte would be to significantly overpay him.

Potential Teams: Hornets, Bulls, Knicks, Thunder, Raptors

Predicted Contract: 4-year, $55 million with the Hornets

Actual Contract: 4-year, $47.3 million (4th year $2.85 million guaranteed) with the Pelicans

Graham got a little less than I expected, and I was surprised that the Pelicans sent the Hornets a future first (albeit heavily-protected) in order to avoid having to give him an offer sheet.

Last updated: 8/22/2021

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