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Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Summary
Robinson has become one of the best stories in the NBA. Robinson started at a Division III school before transferring to Michigan. He later went undrafted and spent most of his rookie season in the G-League. Then in '19-'20, Robinson had a breakthrough season, starting for the Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat, and developing into one of the best shooters in the world.
Robinson has similar gravity coming off screens that Kyle Korver had in his prime, but he's bigger, which allows him to get shots off easier, and he might be a better shooter. The Heat have encouraged him to let it fly at every opportunity, and it has really helped his growth. He's also learned how to put the ball on the floor for a couple dribbles and then hit shots. He's not someone who's going to iso and launch pullup 3s off crossovers, but he can put the ball on the floor to create some additional space off hard closeouts or coming off screens.
Robinson's size also helps him survive on defense, where he will likely always struggle somewhat. Robinson will get a lot of money this summer, as his skillset allows him to fit in with just about every team, and he can be an elite role player.
Cap Considerations
Robinson will be a restricted free agent with a $4.7 million cap hold and Qualifying Offer. Robinson's QO will not come into play, as he will either sign a large contract with the Heat or get a large offer sheet from another team, so Robinson settling for the QO is near certain not to happen.
Since Robinson will have a low cap hold, the Heat can take advantage of this by keeping his cap hold on the books, using their cap space to sign free-agents, then using Bird Rights to re-sign Robinson once their cap space has been used up. If they agree to terms with Robinson, they could also rescind his QO, thus lowering his cap hold and giving the Heat more cap space, before re-signing him.
Robinson will demand a starting salary of more than the full $9.5 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, which means only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. Robinson will be looking for a 4-year, $80+ million offer, and the Heat would still probably match that offer sheet. In addition to giving Robinson a huge offer, teams could make it harder for the Heat to match by adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary.
Potential Teams: Heat, Mavericks, Raptors, Spurs, Knicks
Predicted Contract: 4-year, $80 million with the Heat
Actual Contract: 5-year, $90.8 million (early termination option) with the Heat
Robinson got a little less per-year money than I predicted, but made up for it by getting a fifth year and an ETO.
Last updated: 8/19/2021
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