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Summary
After struggling in his first season in Utah, there were real questions about whether Conley had taken significant steps back and if we would ever get back to the level of play he sustained in Memphis. While he's not quite as dynamic as he was in his prime, he looked every bit like the guy Utah traded for in the summer of 2019, even making his first All-Star appearance.

Conley recorded a career high in eFG% at 55.8%, which was in the 82nd percentile for his position, per Cleaning the Glass. He hit 42% from three, and found his touch on his floater again after struggling with that in his first season in Utah. Conley also developed real chemistry with Rudy Gobert in the pick-and-roll, which took time after playing with a very different center stylistically in Marc Gasol for so long.

Defensively, Conley holds his own and can get by with IQ and positional awareness, but his size hurts him. It's pretty difficult to be a great defender at Conley's height and build, but he does pretty well with what he has, even at his age.

Conley will be going into his age 34 season next year, so teams will likely be wary of giving him a big long-term contract, especially considering the injuries he suffered that kept him mostly out of the 2nd loss, but given the way he's playing, he could get a sizeable short-term deal. If I were Conley's agent, I would be pointing to Goran Dragic's two-year, $39 million contract as a baseline, and be asking for at least that much, and without a team option like Dragic got.
 
Cap Considerations
Conley will be an unrestricted free agent with full Bird rights. As his cap hold ($39.3 million) exceeds the salary he will get in free agency, his cap hold is not really relevant. Since the Jazz will be operating over the salary cap, they will retain Conley's Bird rights, and have no restrictions on re-signing him.
 
However, the luxury tax will certainly be a concern, as re-signing Conley could cost them a lot of money in luxury tax penalties. Therefore, other teams will have a legitimate shot at signing Conley away from Utah.
 
Conley would most likely demand a starting salary of more than the full $9.5 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, which means only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. If Conley and an over-the-cap team have mutual interest, sign-and-trade options can be explored.

Potential Teams: Jazz, Bulls, Knicks, Heat, Mavericks

Predicted Contract: 2-year, $50 million with the Jazz

Actual Contract: 3-year, $68 million (3rd year $14.3M guaranteed) with the Jazz

Conley got a little less per-annual salary than I predicted, but was able to get a partially-guaranteed third year, and some unlikely incentives that could push his salary above $70 million over the three years.

Last updated: 8/17/2021

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