top of page
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Summary
I see a lot of Clint Capela in Jarrett Allen. In 2018, Capela got recognition for outplaying Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert in the playoffs. He ended up turning that into a 5-year $90 million contract that summer, and I think Allen and his agent will be using that as a baseline when negotiating offers this summer.
Capela will most likely never make an All-Star team, and has never even been seriously considered for one, but he's a solid center that can defend the rim and finish well in the paint. Allen has a similar skillset. He's a lob threat on offense, and has shown improvements in his passing out of the short roll and his off-the-dribble game.
On defense, Allen has great positional awareness, and could end up being one of the best rim protectors in the league. While I generally agree with the idea that you shouldn't pay big money for centers, I think the high-teens, low-twenties per year is okay value for an above-average center that you know you're getting in his prime. Context and alternative costs also matter, but teams that need a center and aren't serious contenders to sign elite wings should seriously consider giving Allen a sizeable offer.
Cap Considerations
Allen will be a restricted free agent with a $11.7 million cap hold and a $7.7 million Qualifying Offer. Allen's QO will almost certainly not come into play, as he will either sign a large contract with the Cavs or get a large offer sheet from another team, so Allen settling for the QO is near certain not to happen. If a player has a smaller cap hold than his starting salary, his team can use cap space to sign-free agents before using Bird Rights to re-sign its own free agents. Since the Cavs will likely not have cap room, Allen's cap hold will not play a factor.
Depending on how close the Cavs are to the luxury tax after free agency, if Allen is brought back by the Cavs on a multi-year contract they could benefit from frontloading his contract, as it could give them additional flexibility in the future.
For other teams, Allen will be looking for a contract around 4-year, $80+ million, and it would likely take something near that in order for Cleveland to not match. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for Cleveland to match.
Potential Teams: Cavaliers, Hornets, Thunder, Grizzlies, Raptors
Predicted Contract: 4-year, $80 million with the Cavaliers
Actual Contract: 5-year, $100 million with the Cavaliers.
Allen got a similar contract to what I predicted, but was able to get an extra year.
Last updated: 8/16/2021
bottom of page