Summary

While the Pacers are confident that Sabonis and Myles Turner will be successful playing together, I am skeptical, and if I were Sabonis or his agent I would be concerned about how this fit may impact free agency next summer. If the Turner/Sabonis experiment does not go well this upcoming season, Sabonis could be the one who pays when it comes time to try and get a big contract. Sabonis is a skilled passer, and Turner can stretch the floor, but there could still be spacing issues and Sabonis may struggle to defend certain power forwards.

 

While Sabonis has the potential to develop a three point shot, he has not done so yet. After shooting a poor 32% on threes on 150 attempts in his rookie season in Oklahoma City, Sabonis has only attempts 52 threes total over the past two seasons in Indiana. If Sabonis can hit threes at a reasonable rate, I would be more confident in his ability to thrive as a power forward, despite the defensive limitations.

 

Cap Considerations

Sabonis will be a restricted free agent with a $10.6 million cap hold and a likely $4.8 million Qualifying Offer. Sabonis's QO will not come into play, as he will either sign a large contract with the Pacers or get a large offer sheet from another team, so Sabonis settling for the QO is near certain not to happen.

 

If a player has a smaller cap hold than his starting salary, his team can use cap space to sign-free agents before using Bird Rights to re-sign its own free agents. Since the Pacers will not have cap room (unless they renounce all their free agents, including Sabonis), Sabonis's cap hold will not play a factor if he re-signs with Indiana. If Sabonis is brought back on a multi-year contract, front-loading the contract could be beneficial, but the Pacers will also want to consider the amount of cap room they could have in 2021.

 

For other teams, Sabonis will be looking a contract near the 4-year, $80+ million range and it would likely take something near that in order for Indiana to not match. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for the Pacers to match.