Summary

Murray showed some real promise in his first two seasons before missing the entire '18-'19 season with a torn ACL. Murray's potential lies almost entirely in his offensive game, as he has already shown he can be an All-NBA level defender. His length allows him to defend multiple positions, and he has abilities as both an on-ball and off-ball defender. He can play sound defense, staying in front of his man and making the right rotations, while also being disruptive and making plays on that end. Murray also rebounds extremely well, as both his offensive and defensive rebounding rates were near the top of the league for his positions, according to Cleaning the Glass.

 

Murray is virtually a non-threat on the perimeter, which will make things difficult for him and the Spurs on offense. If teams can help off of him and leave him open, they can clog the lane for the Spurs' other players. It will also limit his ability in the pick-and-roll. as defenders will go under every screen set for Murray. While he may not need to develop an outside jumper just yet, finishing at the rim at a better rate would go a long way, as Murray was below-average in that category in the '17-'18 season. The Spurs seem to be very high on Murray and his potential, and I expect him to get paid like it.

 

Cap Considerations

Murray will be a restricted free agent with a $7 million cap hold and a $5.1 million Qualifying Offer (if Murray starts fewer than 41 games and plays fewer than 2,000 regular season minutes, his Qualifying Offer will be $3.5 million). Murray's QO will not come into play, as he will either sign a large contract with the Spurs or get a large offer sheet from another team, so Murray settling for the QO is near certain not to happen.

 

If a player has a smaller cap hold than his starting salary, his team can use cap space to sign-free agents before using Bird Rights to re-sign its own free agents. Since the Spurs will likely not have cap room, Murray's cap hold will not play a factor. If the Spurs re-sign Murray, they could benefit from front-loading his contract. However, doing so could push the Spurs near the luxury tax, depending on San Antonio's other free agents..

 

For other teams, Murray will be looking for a contract in the 4-year, $80+ million range, and it would likely take something near that in order for San Antonio to not match. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for the Spurs to match.

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Update: Murray signed an extension with the Spurs last fall.