Summary

Williams surprised many by coming out of nowhere in the '18-'19 season to get consistent playing time for the Pelicans once Anthony Davis demanded a trade and their season fell apart. However, with the added depth of the new-look Pelicans, Williams's minutes dipped this season. Williams also missed some time with a back injury.

 

Despite not scoring at an efficient rate, Williams's defensive metrics and rebounding rates were promising in his rookie season, but those numbers were below-average this past season. With Williams not being the most athletic defender, he will likely need to hit shots at a better rate in order to become a reliable role player when the games matter the most. However, I think Williams can contribute during the regular season, because he rarely makes mistakes and generally knows where to be on the defensive end.

 

Williams is already 25 years old, so he does not have the upside of most players with his level of NBA experience. 

 

Cap Considerations

Williams will be a restricted free agent with a $1.8 million cap hold and Qualifying Offer, and Early Bird rights. If the Pelicans operate under the cap, they could keep Williams's cap hold on the books, use their remaining cap space to sign free agents, and then bring Williams back using his Early Bird rights.

 

The Pelicans will have an interesting decision regarding whether to tender the $1.8 million QO and make Williams a restricted free agent. On one hand, it is a very low cap hold, and not giving him the offer would not free up very much cap space. However, if the Pelicans believe Williams might sign the $1.8 million QO, and that he's not worth keeping at that price, then it is not worth it to make him a restricted free agent.

 

Note that the Pelicans can maintain Williams's Early Bird rights without offering him the QO, as long as the QO is not offered initially or pulled before the end of October. If Williams is brought back using Early Bird rights rather than cap space, the Pelicans will be limited to paying him a starting salary of up to 105% of the average salary this past season (roughly $10 million), which should be more than enough unless he has a breakout year. If Williams is brought back by the Pelicans on a multi-year contract above the minimum, they should frontload his contract as much as possible.

 

For other teams, the ability to get Williams will likely depend on if he is a restricted or unrestricted free agent. If he is unrestricted, he'll be available to almost any team, especially considering his salary will likely fit within any of the Mid-Level Exceptions, the Bi-Annual Exception, or possibly even the minimum. If he is restricted, teams will likely hesitate to give Williams an offer sheet, since anything too far above his market value will be an overpay, and anything near his market value or below will just get matched by New Orleans.

 

In addition, since Williams will only have two years of service, he will be subject to the Gilbert Arenas provision. This means that any offer sheet he signs with a team besides New Orleans can have a starting maximum salary of $9.3 million, but the third, and potentially fourth, years of that contract can have a large jump (up to the max). His cap hit would then be the average salary over the life of the contract. If the Pelicans match, they could choose for his cap hit to either be his actual salary per season or the average over the life of the contract, provided the average fits within the Early Bird Exception. I do not expect this to come into play for Williams, as he is unlikely to demand a high enough salary for this to occur.