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Summary

Brown has shown he can be a valuable rotational piece on a championship-level team. However, when the Celtics and other teams are evaluating Brown as a free agent, they will be questioning whether Brown can take that next leap into an All-Star or All-NBA level player. Brown is a versatile defender that rebounds well for his size, but needs to either lock down perimeter plays at an elite rate or develop his ability to breakup plays before they happen (ala Draymond Green) in order to became one of the best defenders in the league.

 

On offense, Brown shot 35% from three in '18-'19, down from 40% in the previous season. On a side note, part of the reason for Brown and Jayson Tatum not living up to expectations in '18-'19 might have just been due to unsustainable hot shooting in the previous season. Brown can attack off the catch and get to the rim, but if he wants to become a go-to scorer, he needs improvement in his isolation and pick-and-roll game. However, big wings that play defense, hit shots at a reasonable rate, and can be a third or fourth scoring option certainly get paid in the NBA (see Harrison Barnes), and I would expect the same for Brown.

Cap Considerations

Brown will be a restricted free agent with a $19.6 million cap hold and a $8.6 million Qualifying Offer. Brown's QO will not come into play, as he will either sign a large contract with the Celtics or get a large offer sheet from another team, so Brown settling for the QO is near certain not to happen. If a player has a smaller cap hold than his starting salary, his team can use cap space to sign-free agents before using Bird Rights to re-sign its own free agents. Since the Celtics will not have cap room, Brown's cap hold will not play a factor.

 

If the Celtics re-sign Brown, they could benefit from front-loading his contract. However, doing so could push the Celtics near the luxury tax in 2020-2021, depending on Boston's other free agents. In addition, they will also have to factor in Jayson Tatum getting a big raise in 2021-2022. While Hayward's salary will be off the books by then, having three large salaries in Kemba Walker, Tatum, and Brown could push the Celtics into the tax in 2021-2022 as well.

 

For other teams, Brown will be looking for a 4-year, $125 million max offer, and it would likely take something near that in order for Boston to not match. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for Boston to match.

Potential Teams: Celtics, Hawks, Raptors, Grizzlies, Thunder

Predicted Contract: 4-year, $115 million (4th year player option) with the Celtics

Actual Contract: 4-year, $107 million (including additional unlikely incentives to get to $115 million) with the Celtics

Last updated: 10/27/2019

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