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Summary

Harrell had a breakout season in '18-'19, finishing third in voting for Sixth Man of the Year, and continued that strong play into this past season for the championship-contending Clippers, even winning that award. Harrell and Lou Williams have developed a great pick and roll chemistry, leading to Harrell being one of the premier roll threats in the league. However, Harrell does have some limitations on offense, as he has not developed much of a jump shot, and could benefit from improved playmaking out of the short roll.

 

The bigger worry is on defense, and that weakness became exposed as the Clippers were upset by the Nuggets in the second round. On defense, Harrell does not have the impact that many assume based on his reputation as an energy big. He is not a strong rim protector, due to both his size and his positional awareness. On the perimeter, Harrell can also struggle after switching onto guards or having to stop them in the pick and roll. The Clippers really struggled on defense when Harrell was on the court in the playoffs.

 

While his market was certainly hurt by his postseason performance, it will be interesting to see how much it hurts his value. His offensive impact should still be able to get him a big raise this offseason, but he likely left several million on the table with his play during the playoffs. Harrell and his agent, Rich Paul, do have some leverage over the Clippers, as the Clippers will not have cap space even if he leaves, and will likely only have the Taxpayer MLE no matter what Harrell's decision is. Therefore, the Clippers are choosing between Harrell or nothing, rather than Harrell or a replacement.

Cap Considerations

Harrell will be an unrestricted free agent with a $11.4 million cap hold and full Bird rights. Since the Clippers will be operating over the salary cap, they will retain Harrell's Bird rights, and have no restrictions on re-signing him. Re-signing Harrell could push the Clippers into the luxury tax (depending on his starting salary, if Marcus Morris is brought back, and if the Clippers add anyone using their Mid-Level Exception), but I do not expect Steve Ballmer to be concerned with paying the luxury tax for this team.

 

If Harrell demands a starting salary of more than the full $9.3 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. If Harrell and an over-the-cap team have mutual interest, sign-and-trade options can be explored.

Potential Teams: Clippers, Hornets, Pistons, Cavaliers, Timberwolves

Predicted Contract: 2-year, $25 million with the Clippers

Actual Contract: 2-year, $19 million (player option) with the Lakers.

Harrell couldn't get above the full MLE, but did a good job of getting the full MLE with a player option for a title contender.

Last updated: 12/31/2020

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