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Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Summary
The former #5 overall pick had the best year of his career, establishing himself as a top tier defender. Dunn is long enough to guard multiple positions, and has disruptive tendencies off the ball. On the ball, he has the mobility to stay in front of his defender, and really swarm ball handlers.
The biggest question mark for Dunn remains his outside shot. Dunn is virtually a non-threat from outside, which allows defenses to sag off of him and go under all pick-and-rolls. Dunn did improve his finishing at the rim this season, shooting above average for his position in that area. However, his percentages from everywhere else on the floor are horrendous. If Dunn were on a playoff team, I would be concerned that defenses would completely ignore him on the offensive end, making him unplayable when the games matter the most.
Cap Considerations
Dunn will be a restricted free agent with a $16 million cap hold and a likely $7.1 million Qualifying Offer. If the Bulls do not have interest in bringing back Dunn they could refuse to tender him a QO, making him an unrestricted free agent. With the Bulls drafting Coby White and signing Tomas Satoransky, and with Dunn's QO being on the higher end, I think there is a possibility this occurs.
The Bulls can create some cap room next summer if they renounce their free agents (including Dunn), but it may not be enough cap room to be worth it. It may be more beneficial to stay over the cap and use their $9.3 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception and the $3.6 million Bi-Annual exception. That decision will likely depend on how the Bulls feel about Dunn. If they think his restricted rights are worth retaining, they will operate over the cap, and let Dunn test the restricted market. If Dunn is brought back on a multi-year contract, front-loading the contract could be beneficial, but the Bulls will also want to consider the amount of cap room they could have in 2021.
Other teams will show a much higher interest in Dunn if he is an unrestricted free agent, as they will be hesitant to tie up their cap space to sign Dunn to an offer sheet if the Bulls might match. Dunn's market likely will not be high enough to restrict his market to teams with cap space, as teams could possibly use any of the Non-Taxpayer, Taxpayer, or Room Mid-Level Exceptions to sign him.
Potential Teams: Bulls, Kings, Nets, Hawks, Wizards
Predicted Contract: 1-year, $7.1 million with the Bulls
Actual Contract: 2-year, $9.8 million (player option) with the Hawks
I was surprised the Bulls did not give Dunn his Qualifying Offer to make him a restricted free agent, even at a decently high number. After that happened, Dunn signed with the Hawks at a number that didn't surprise me.
Last updated: 12/31/2020
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