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Summary

Dragic spent the majority of the '18-'19 season injured, and lost the starting point guard position to Kendrick Nunn during the regular season. Dragic was looking less like an above-average starting point guard and more like a low-end starter or high-end backup. However, Dragic completely turned his season around with his play in the playoffs, where he looked like an All-Star. He showed his shot-making and creation skills, showing he can score at multiple levels.

 

At age 34, teams may still be hesitant to give Dragic a long-term contract, especially since his best stretch of basketball was during a somewhat small sample size. Therefore a large one-year deal, whether in Miami or elsewhere, seems likely. 

Cap Considerations

Dragic will be an unrestricted free agent with full Bird rights. As his cap hold ($28.8 million) exceeds the salary he will get in free agency, his cap hold is not really relevant. The Heat will almost certainly go into the summer prepared to renounce Dragic and remove his cap hold in order to maximize their cap space. If they want to bring Dragic back, they can certainly do so and still have plenty of cap space available.

 

The Heat may even operate over the cap, and bring back their own free agents on one-year deals. If Dragic is brought back by the Heat on a multi-year contract, they should frontload his contract as much as possible, given they have the excess cap space now. However, I find a multi-year deal unlikely, as the Heat will want to preserve as much cap space as possible for 2021.

 

If Dragic demands a starting salary of greater than $9.3 million, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. If Dragic and an above-the cap team have mutual interest, sign-and-trade options can be explored.

Potential Teams: Heat, Knicks, Pistons, Magic, Clippers

Predicted Contract: 1-year, $18 million with the Heat

Actual Contract: 2-year, $37.4 million with the Heat.

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My prediction was pretty close here, with the main difference being the Heat getting a team option for year two in case they decide to not pursue additions in free agency.

Last updated: 12/31/2020

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