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Summary
Crowder has had success the past few seasons as a small ball four. In Utah, he often finished games over starter Derrick Favors, and the Jazz's lineups with Crowder at the four were very successful. However, Crowder's struggles to consistently hit shots really hindered the Jazz in the playoffs, making them willing to trade him for Mike Conley. Despite hitting a respectable 34% from three, many of Crowder's looks are on wide open attempts.
 
In Miami, the Heat made the same determination to start Crowder at the four during the playoffs. He had one of the best stretches of his career, hitting threes at a great rate and playing solid defense against some of the league's best wings in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum. He may not be an All-Defense level player, but if he can hold his own against elite wings going forward, teams will be very interested in Crowder this offseason. The biggest question teams will have is if his improved shooting in the Orlando bubble is sustainable or if it's just a well-timed hot stretch.

Cap Considerations

Crowder will be an unrestricted free agent with full Bird rights. As his cap hold ($14.8 million) exceeds the salary he will get in free agency, his cap hold is not really relevant. The Heat will almost certainly go into the summer prepared to renounce Crowder and remove his cap hold in order to maximize their cap space.

 

If the Heat want to bring Crowder back, they can certainly do so and still have plenty of cap space available. Alternatively, they could potentially use all their cap space and have the Room Mid-Level Exception of $4.8 million to bring back Crowder, which may be enough. The Heat may even operate over the cap, and bring back their own free agents on one-year deals. If Crowder is brought back by the Heat on a multi-year contract, they should frontload his contract as much as possible, given they have the excess cap space now. However, I find a multi-year deal unlikely, as the Heat will want to preserve as much cap space as possible for 2021.

 

If Crowder demands a starting salary of greater than $9.3 million, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. If Crowder and an above-the cap team have mutual interest, sign-and-trade options can be explored. 

Potential Teams: Hawks, Rockets, Trailblazers, 76ers, Heat

Predicted Contract: 2-year, $23 million with the Hawks

Actual Contract: 3-year, $29.2 million with the Suns

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As the teams with cap space went in other directions, it made sense that Crowder got the full MLE, and is a good fit in Phoenix.

Last updated: 12/31/2020

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