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Summary

Despite not shooting well from outside (32% from three for his career), Craig has shown he can be a valuable wing on a competitive team. He can defend multiple positions, plays hard, and has some creativity in his moves in order to finish well at the rim.

 

Craig has often been tasked with guarding the opponent's best player, ranging from big wings like Lebron James to point guards like Damian Lillard. However, with the addition of Jerami Grant this past season, those assignments mostly went to Grant, especially in the playoffs.

 

Craig will be 29 years old when he hits free agency this offseason so this is likely his best chance at ever getting a big contract. Because of that, I expect locking up long-term money will be the number one priority for Craig and his agent.

Cap Considerations

Craig will be a restricted free agent with full Bird Rights, an $3.8 million cap hold, and a $2.5 million Qualifying Offer. Since the Nuggets will almost certainly be operating over the salary cap, they will tender him the QO and make him a restricted free agent, and have no restrictions on re-signing him. I find it unlikely Craig's QO will come into play, but if the Nuggets let him explore the restricted market and he comes up empty, he may end up settling for the QO and becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2021.

 

The luxury tax will certainly be a concern, as spending heavily on retaining their free agents could cost the Nuggets a lot of money in luxury tax penalties. Therefore, other teams will have a legitimate shot at signing Craig to an offer sheet that the Nuggets would not match. Craig's starting salary will likely fit within the full $9.3 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, so even teams without cap space could potentially target Craig.

Potential Teams: Nuggets, Hornets, Pelicans, Raptors, Hawks

Predicted Contract: 3-year, $20 million with the Nuggets

Actual Contract: 1-year, $1.7 million ($1.6 million cap hit) with the Bucks.

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I thought I might be a little optimistic on my prediction for Craig, but it turned out I was very far off, as Craig had to settle for a one-year minimum contract.

Last updated: 12/31/2020

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