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Summary

After playing on 26 games in each of his first two seasons, Bembry played in all 82 games for the Hawks in '18-'19, playing just under 23 minutes per game. His minutes decreased slightly this past season as the Hawks added young wings in De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish. Bembry's offense primarily comes at the rim, as his percentage of shot attempts at the rim has been near the top of the league for his position each of his four seasons so far, according to Cleaning the Glass.

 

Unfortunately for Bembry and the Hawks, his finishing at the rim is below-average. Bembry is not a true threat from outside yet, as he only shot 30% from three on just under two attempts per game in '18-'19, and was even worse this past season at 25% on a small number of attempts. That number will have to be significantly improved in order to be respected as a shooter. Even if Bembry never develops into a knockdown shooter, there is a role for wings that can attack off the catch and give enough effort on defense to be passable. Exceeding in these areas is likely the best way for Bembry to remain in the league.

 

I believe in Bembry as a decent rotational wing that can provide enough shooting and off-the-bounce ability to last in this league. However, his value around the league seems pretty low and he'll likely only get the minimum.

Cap Considerations

Bembry will be a restricted free agent with a $7.8 million cap hold and a $3.8 million Qualifying Offer. The Hawks will have an interesting decision regarding whether to tender the $3.8 million QO and make Bembry a restricted free agent. On one hand, the Hawks will probably have more cap space than they can use, so keeping Bembry's $7.8 million cap hold on the books may have no alternative cost.

 

Note that the Hawks can maintain Bembry's Bird Rights without offering him the QO, as long as the QO is not offered initially or pulled before the end of October. However, if the Hawks believe Bembry might sign the $3.8 million QO, and that he's not worth keeping at that price, then it is not worth it to make him a restricted free agent. If Bembry is brought back by the Hawks on a multi-year contract, they should frontload his contract as much as possible, given they have the excess cap space now.

 

For other teams, the ability to get Bembry will likely depend on if he is a restricted or unrestricted free agent. If he is unrestricted, he'll be available to almost any team, especially considering his salary will likely fit within any of the Mid-Level Exceptions, the Bi-Annual Exception, or possibly even the minimum. If he is restricted, teams will likely hesitate to give Bembry an offer sheet, since anything too far above his market value will be an overpay, and anything near his market value or below will just get matched by Atlanta.

Potential Teams: Hornets, Pistons, Hawks, Trailblazers, Heat

Predicted Contract: 1-year, $1.7 million ($1.6 million cap hit) with the Hornets

Actual Contract: 2-year, $3.7 million (2nd year non-guaranteed) with the Raptors

Bembry predictably only got the minimum, and similar to other players signed by the Raptors, the second year was non-guaranteed.

Last updated: 12/31/2020

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